
Technicals Vs. Fundamentals
Which Money Management Strategy will work?
Technicals Analysis:
A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.
Fundamental Analysis:
While fundamentals are most often considered factors that relate to businesses, currencies also have fundamentals. For example, interest rates, GDP growth, trade balance surplus/deficits and inflation levels are some macroeconomic factors that are considered to be fundamentals of a currency's underlying value.
There are many different Fundamental Items that can come into play, which usually have set times and dates for their release (News Releases) and some are released on-the-fly. Trading the news is a process that involves the waiting for specific times of the day and month, where news results are issued to the public. These economic indicators are released at specific days and times. This eliminates the guess work that goes into trying to expect when these figures are released:
Employment Situation & Non-Farm Payroll - The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Non-farm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the non-farm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in non-farm payrolls.
Retail Sales - Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.
GDP (Final)- Gross Domestic Product is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.
Institute for Supply Management - The ISM surveys nearly 400 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions is constructed, where reading above (below) 50 percent indicate an expanding (contracting) factory sector. Export orders, import orders, backlog orders and prices paid for raw and unfinished materials are also measured, but these are not included in the overall index.
Consumer Price Index - The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation.
Consumer Confidence Index & Existing Home Sales- The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. Five thousand consumers across the country are surveyed each month. Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominium and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month.
International Trade - The international trade balance level measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) - The Federal Open Market Committee consists of the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board and five Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The FOMC meets eight times a year in order to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy. Changes in monetary policy are now announced immediately after FOMC meetings.
Industrial Production - The index of industrial production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. The industrial sector accounts for less than one-fifth of the economy but for most of its cyclical variation. The capacity utilization rate reflects the usage of available resources among factories, utilities and mines. A high and rising operating rate may signal that resources are being utilized to their fullest capacity -- a warning sign of inflationary pressures.
Housing Stats - Housing starts measure initial construction of residential units (single-family and multi-family) each month. A rising (falling) trend points to gains (declines) in demand for furniture, home furnishings and appliances.
Producer Price Index - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods received by producers.
Durable Goods Orders - Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.
Personal Income and Outlays - Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services.